AGP Executive Report

Lebanon Banking & Savings Crisis: Protesters returned to the streets of Beirut, lighting fires and smashing bank doors to demand access to frozen deposits after seven years of restrictions, with demonstrations targeting major banks and the Association of Banks in Lebanon. US-Iran Escalation & Military Readiness: The U.S. says it intercepted multiple Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at American troops in the Middle East, while analysts warn depleted interceptor stockpiles could raise risks if hostilities resume. White House Diplomacy (Israel, Ukraine): Trump held separate closed-door meetings with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, calling talks “positive and productive,” as Washington weighs support priorities amid expanding regional conflicts. Lebanon-Syria Trade Link: Syria plans to reopen the Al-Dabousiyah border crossing with Lebanon in September after rehabilitation, aiming to boost cargo and passenger movement and strengthen overland connectivity. Lebanon Energy Angle: Lebanon is pushing an Iraq-to-Mediterranean oil transit concept that could route exports via Tripoli, tying the country into a wider regional energy map. Regional Security Talks: Reports say Netanyahu is seeking U.S. backing for arrangements tied to southern Lebanon, including pilot security areas and the Lebanese army’s role under a framework agreement.

Middle East Energy & Trade: Oman-backed Gulf plan would let Iran collect “voluntary fees” for Strait of Hormuz use, aiming to stabilize oil flows after the US-Iran war disrupted shipping and pushed crude lower. US-Iran Diplomacy: Mediators say talks are gaining ground as drone and armed-group activity continues, while US and Iran keep a pause on strikes for days. White House Talks (Israel-Lebanon angle): Trump will host Netanyahu for the first in-person meeting since the Iran war began, with Iran, Gaza, and the Lebanon file expected on the agenda. Lebanon Business & Economy: Lebanon and Iraq are pushing energy cooperation, including a Mediterranean oil transit route to bypass Hormuz, while Lebanon also moves on “pilot zones” tied to sovereignty and implementation. Local Economy/Travel Retail: PAC Beirut Duty Free rebrands with a new “Between Home and Away” signature, betting on customer experience as it refreshes its airport retail identity. Regional Investment: Kuwait’s CGC emerged as lowest bidder for a $516m southern water treatment project (award pending). Health & Society (business impact): Lebanon’s cancer burden is rising fast, with coverage highlighting pressure on care capacity and costs.

US-Iran War Sentiment: A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds just 1 in 3 Americans back the U.S. war on Iran, with 69% saying Trump hasn’t clearly explained the goals—while his approval edges up to 37%. Lebanon-Iraq Energy Talks: Lebanon proposes using Lebanese territory as a Mediterranean transit corridor for Iraqi crude to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, as exports reportedly fall sharply amid regional disruption. Lebanon-US/Israel Framework Tensions: President Joseph Aoun warns Lebanon won’t accept Israel breaching the US-backed “pilot zones” framework, citing ongoing home and village razing as violations of human rights and international law. UNESCO Heritage Push: UNESCO adds the Palestinian village of Sebastia and Lebanese castles to the World Heritage List and/or Danger list despite Israeli objections—raising stakes for cultural protection amid conflict. Local Business/Legal: Lebanon-linked N.N. Est Metals case: Ghana’s AG moves against a former general manager over alleged $280,000 theft tied to unauthorized payments. Regional Diplomacy: Mediators report progress toward renewed US-Iran talks as strikes remain paused, even as drone and missile incidents keep risk elevated.

Lebanon’s Energy Push: Lebanon’s Electricity Regulatory Authority launched a tender for up to 350 MW of grid-connected solar, paired with 1 GWh of battery storage, with an expressions-of-interest deadline of Aug. 31—another step toward scaling renewables under an IPP-style model. Sovereignty on Trial in the South: Lebanon began implementing “pilot zones” in southern villages after phased Israeli withdrawals, with the Lebanese Armed Forces deploying to restore exclusive state authority and keep armed groups out—success could unlock reconstruction confidence, failure would raise doubts about implementation. US–Lebanon Flights: Trump directed the US to allow direct flights to Lebanon again for the first time since the 1980s, a move framed by Lebanese officials as tangible support for the country’s current push for stability and economic breathing room. Regional Security Shockwaves: The US and Iran paused strikes for multiple nights as mediators (Qatar and Pakistan) try to revive an interim ceasefire, while Houthis fired missiles at Saudi targets in retaliation tied to Red Sea shipping pressure.

Lebanon-Iraq Energy Talks: Lebanon’s PM Nawaf Salam met Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi in Baghdad to push energy cooperation and security coordination, with talks also touching a possible new oil pipeline route to the Mediterranean—an effort to reduce Lebanon’s fuel strain amid power shortages. Syrian Mediation for Lebanon: Syria’s President Ahmad al-Sharaa said Damascus will not intervene militarily in Lebanon, but is offering “cards” and political options to help Beirut restore state control over weapons and security decisions, while also seeking a security agreement with Israel that could open the door to broader peace. Iran-US Pause, Shipping Risk: The US and Iran both paused attacks for a second straight day as mediators push interim ceasefire talks tied to Strait of Hormuz negotiations, though uncertainty remains and regional shipping fears continue. Hezbollah Backing Reaffirmed: Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated Tehran’s continued support for Hezbollah and demanded an unconditional end to Israeli aggression as a condition for any agreement. UNESCO Heritage in Danger: UNESCO added Lebanon’s Mount Amel Castles to the World Heritage in Danger and also listed other threatened sites, underscoring how conflict and climate pressures are hitting cultural assets. Local Business/Industry: GMi Companies in Lebanon, Ohio announced a 1,600-panel rooftop solar installation expected to cover nearly all electricity use and cut costs over the long term.

Lebanon-Iraq Business & Energy: PM Nawaf Salam arrived in Baghdad with a ministerial delegation (Finance, Energy/Water, Telecom) to push talks on renewing Iraq’s fuel supply to Lebanon and expanding cooperation, including trade, investment, and using Lebanon as an export route for Iraqi oil to the Mediterranean. Regional Security & Lebanon: Syria’s transitional President Ahmed Al-Sharaa said Damascus is seeking a security arrangement involving several countries while insisting it won’t drop its Golan claim; he also ruled out Syrian military intervention in Lebanon and said Damascus coordinates with Beirut. Lebanon War Costs: Hezbollah cash crunch is stalling Lebanon war compensation, with damage surveys ongoing but no clear mechanism or start date for payments. Humanitarian Pressure in South Lebanon: Civilians in Israel’s “yellow zone” face daily shortages and movement restrictions while trying to deliver food and medical aid under siege-like conditions. Global Energy Shock (Red Sea): Houthis fired missiles and drones at Saudi oil facilities in Yanbu and Jizan, escalating pressure on Red Sea shipping and energy supplies. Diplomacy vs. Force (US-Iran): The US paused strikes on Iran for a second day as talks continue, amid warnings about dwindling munitions and renewed regional escalation risks.

Lebanon-Iraq Energy Talks: Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam is set to visit Baghdad to renew Iraq’s fuel supply deal and expand trade and investment, with Lebanon’s owed fuel payments said ready for transfer once Iraq’s central bank platform is activated. US Sanctions & Finance: The US sanctioned a London-based Muslim Brotherhood leader accused of fundraising for Hamas, a move likely to pressure the UK on how it treats Brotherhood-linked networks. UNESCO Heritage Push: UNESCO added the West Bank site of Sebastia and Lebanon’s Mount Amel castles to the World Heritage List, also placing them on the “in danger” list amid conflict. Red Sea Shockwaves: Iran-backed Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan after strikes on Hodeida, raising fears of further disruption to Bab el-Mandeb shipping. Beirut Safety After “Black Wednesday”: Beirut’s damaged buildings remain in limbo, with the cabinet tasking a survey for temporary housing allowances for structures deemed dangerous. Local Tech & Youth: A Minecraft-based urban redesign project is keeping Beirut’s community planning active despite ongoing strikes.

Lebanon-US Connectivity: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun says it’s time to permanently end the war and backs keeping international peacekeepers as UNIFIL’s mandate ends, while the US begins the process to allow direct flights to Beirut again after more than four decades—pending security reviews and approvals. UNESCO Heritage & Tourism Risk: UNESCO added Sebastia in the occupied West Bank and five castles in Lebanon’s Mount Amel (including Beaufort) to the World Heritage List and the “in danger” list, despite Israeli objections—raising stakes for preservation and cross-border tourism. Regional Security With Economic Spillovers: The US-Iran conflict continues to disrupt shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, with drones and strikes reported near US bases and renewed attacks on tankers and ports. Sanctions & Finance Pressure: The US sanctioned a UK-based Muslim Brotherhood leader tied to fundraising for Hamas, signaling tighter scrutiny of charity and financial networks. Lebanon Health Impact: Lebanon’s Public Health Emergency Operations Center says deaths from the Israeli aggression since March 2 reached 4,330, with 12,236 injured. Local Business Angle: A Cyprus-based venture capital firm says upcoming AI IPOs could reset private-market valuations, pointing to Cyprus’ role as a capital hub.

Lebanon–Israel diplomacy: Lebanon’s Public Health ministry says deaths from the Israeli aggression since March 2 have reached 4,330, with 12,236 injured, as the U.S.-brokered framework pushes redeployment and reconstruction in the south. US–Iran escalation: The U.S. and Iran keep trading strikes for a 13th straight night, with U.S. forces firing on a merchant vessel trying to breach the blockade of Iranian ports while Iran targets U.S. strongholds around the Persian Gulf. Energy and trade risk: With Hormuz effectively shut and the Bab al-Mandeb under Houthi blockade, analysts warn of a rare two-chokepoint crisis that could spike fuel prices and disrupt global shipping. UN and heritage: UNESCO added the West Bank’s Sebastia and five Lebanese castles to the World Heritage List and the endangered list, citing conflict impacts despite Israeli objections. Business and travel signals: Delta admits demand for its new Atlanta–Riyadh route is “softer” than expected, and the airline plans to start the service on Oct. 23. Governance and finance: The UN General Assembly opened a special session against corruption, while Lebanon’s economic recovery and aid support remain tied to the security track.

Lebanon–US Aviation: Trump ordered all American airlines to resume direct flights to Lebanon, a move Lebanon’s PM says could boost travel, investment and the wider economy. UNESCO & Heritage: A UN committee inscribed Sebastia in the West Bank and five Lebanese castles in Mount Amel on the World Heritage List (and danger list), despite Israeli objections—another flashpoint where culture meets geopolitics. Middle East Energy Shock: Oil prices pushed above $100 as the Red Sea and Hormuz risks rise, with Houthi actions and US-Iran tensions threatening shipping and tightening global supply routes. US Sanctions & Finance: The US sanctioned a London-based Muslim Brotherhood leader accused of fundraising for Hamas, adding pressure on UK and regional financial networks. Trade Policy: New US tariffs targeting forced labour will replace expiring global levies, covering 99.4% of US imports—raising costs for businesses tied to cross-border supply chains. Local Governance (Lebanon): Lebanon’s city attorney was suspended for a month after a disciplinary hearing involving the mayor, spotlighting governance and accountability at municipal level.

Middle East Energy Shock: US strikes on Iran entered a 13th night as Houthis said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, with Brent crude topping $100 a barrel and fears growing of wider shipping disruption. US Sanctions & Finance: The US Treasury sanctioned senior Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas-linked networks, targeting fundraising and “front” entities tied to Hamas financing. Lebanon Governance & Rule of Law: Lebanon’s City Attorney Andy Wright was suspended for one month after a disciplinary hearing with Mayor Rick Bell, citing poor communication, responsiveness and productivity. Lebanon Infrastructure Planning: Lebanon’s wastewater treatment site selection narrowed to four potential locations after property owners were contacted; the final ranking is set for presentation to the city council. Lebanon-US Diplomacy: President Joseph Aoun’s Washington meeting with Trump clarified a framework tied to Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, but without new measurable commitments—leaving implementation and reconstruction as the key next steps. Lebanon Business & Society: A panel with TNA and ActionAid UK in London highlighted how Lebanon’s overlapping crises keep getting sidelined despite war, economic collapse and displacement.

Lebanon Security & Trade: Lebanese customs seized 3.5 tons of narcotics at Beirut port, with arrests made under judicial supervision. Regional Energy Risk: Houthis said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, as the U.S. carried out a 12th straight night of strikes on Iran—raising fears of fresh shipping disruption and higher fuel prices. Defense Spending & Israel Ties: The U.S. House passed a $1.15T defense bill, including $750m for U.S.-Israel joint military projects. Lebanon-US Diplomacy: Trump said direct U.S.-Lebanon flights could resume after decades, after meetings with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, while Lebanon’s president pushed for an Israeli withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament conditions. UN Leadership & Funding Pressure: Six candidates for UN secretary-general will debate publicly ahead of the selection process, as the U.S. defends sweeping UN overhaul and budget cuts under “America First.” Market Outlook: A global risk ranking put Lebanon among the riskiest equity markets, reflecting conflict and economic stress.

Lebanon-US diplomacy: President Joseph Aoun met Donald Trump at the White House, pressing for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon as a key condition for any Hezbollah disarmament, alongside army control and state-led reconstruction. Port security: Lebanese customs seized 3.5 tons of drugs at Beirut port and arrested suspects tied to a smuggling ring. Regional trade risk: Houthis warned they may target ships using Saudi ports, adding pressure to already tense Red Sea shipping routes as the US-Iran standoff escalates. Energy infrastructure: Iraq and Syria began preparatory studies to rehabilitate the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline, with technical and financial assessments underway. Heritage hit: UNESCO added war-damaged Tyre to its World Heritage list “in danger,” citing direct damage and conservation concerns. Business/finance: Northrim BanCorp signed a definitive deal to acquire PBCO Financial Corporation, expanding its footprint and boosting assets. Policy/markets: US stocks were mixed ahead of major tech earnings, with investors watching higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions.

US-Lebanon Air Links: Trump ordered direct US flights to Beirut to resume after 40 years, calling it a major boost for Lebanese connectivity and the economy, following his Oval Office meeting with President Joseph Aoun. Hezbollah Disarmament Talks: Aoun said Hezbollah can be disarmed only if Israel ends its occupation, the Lebanese army takes full control, and reconstruction is run solely by the state—framing a “disarmament, demobilization and reintegration” path. Regional War Pressure: The US said it’s “not finished” with Iran as strikes continue; Iran and Gulf states reported new attacks, while Houthis threatened wider Red Sea disruption—raising risks for trade and energy flows that matter to Lebanon’s business environment. Trade & Pharma Policy: Trump announced a tariff plan for imported generic drugs (0% for two years, then 100%, then 200%), aiming to reshape production—an indirect signal for regional medicine supply chains. Travel Rules for Visitors: Lebanon listed 13 African countries eligible for visa-on-arrival, with strict proof-of-funds and onward-ticket requirements. Security at Borders: Syria seized an arms shipment hidden in a vehicle bound for Lebanon, underscoring ongoing cross-border smuggling concerns.

Lebanon-US diplomacy: President Joseph Aoun met Donald Trump at the White House, pushing for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, continued US backing for the Lebanese Armed Forces, and plans to disarm Hezbollah—while Trump pledged to help Lebanon “a lot” and said he’s open to dialogue with Hezbollah if Beirut asks. Air connectivity: Trump also announced direct US flights to Lebanon will resume for the first time in 40+ years, a move Lebanon’s PM called a boost for travel and the economy. Ceasefire mechanics in the south: Israel withdrew troops from parts of southern Lebanon as “pilot zones” begin, with the Lebanese army moving into areas after Israeli pullbacks. Energy and costs risk: Oil prices rose again as Houthis threaten attacks on tankers using Saudi ports and warn of a maritime blockade, raising fears of supply disruptions through key chokepoints. Solar investment: Kuwait Fund and UNDP signed a $3m grant to install solar systems and improve energy efficiency at Lebanon’s public institutions. Local services: Lebanon Fire District’s latest budget update showed tighter spending and higher ambulance revenue.

Lebanon-US talks: President Joseph Aoun is set to meet Donald Trump at the White House as Beirut pushes for Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon and U.S. support to help the Lebanese Armed Forces take over “pilot zone” areas under a U.S.-brokered framework. Ceasefire mechanics: The pilot rollout is already underway in villages including Zawtar al-Gharbieh, with the LAF moving in after Israeli pullbacks and the U.S. coordinating verification. Regional business risk: The wider U.S.-Iran war is escalating again, with attacks hitting Bahrain, Kuwait and the Strait of Hormuz, while Yemen’s Houthis threaten a Red Sea maritime blockade—raising fears for shipping, oil prices, and Lebanon’s import costs. Humanitarian pressure: WHO warns conflict and funding cuts are worsening the Eastern Mediterranean health crisis, with disruptions to medical supply chains. Lebanon economy signals: UAE humanitarian aid convoys are arriving in Lebanon to support displaced families, while tourism-linked relief measures are being announced in the region.