AGP Executive Report

UNICEF Child Deprivation: UNICEF says 22% of Lebanese households report children going to bed hungry, with 20% out of school for a year and major gaps in health care access as displacement and the economic toll deepen. Southern Lebanon Security & Economy: Israeli airstrikes and artillery continue across south Lebanon despite a US-brokered framework, while Lebanon documents suspected war crimes and implementation of reconstruction and recovery measures remains stalled. Hezbollah Financing Watch: A CENTEF report estimates Hezbollah acquired about $157m in weapons in 2024, mostly via Iranian in-kind donations, framing the group’s arsenal as a financial and supply-chain problem. Lebanon’s Regional Trade Push: Algeria and Lebanon’s industry and trade officials discussed boosting economic and industrial cooperation and activating business council links to unlock joint projects. Gulf Air Incident Fallout: After a reported Flydubai hijack attempt involving a flight to Tel Aviv, Israeli politicians traded blame and praised passengers’ intervention, while the probe and political reactions keep regional tensions in focus. UNIFIL Transition: UNIFIL’s planned end will reshape southern Lebanon’s monitoring and liaison system, with UNTSO and a separate coordination track expected to continue alongside Lebanese Armed Forces deployment. Business & Startups: Giblox says it’s advancing G1Mall vendor onboarding and marketplace readiness with FasterCapital support ahead of seed discussions.

Humanitarian Crisis: UNICEF says 1 in 5 children in Lebanon go to bed hungry, with conflict and the economic collapse pushing families out of school and into work. US–Lebanon Policy: Lebanon’s FM Youssef Rajji told Washington talks that direct negotiations with Israel under US auspices are the only path to restore territory and end weapons outside state control. Regional Diplomacy: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan is set to visit the UAE to coordinate on Gaza, Lebanon, and maritime security around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Security & Aviation: Netanyahu says Israel will join the investigation into the flydubai co-pilot stabbing incident, while ministers call for stronger action after the attempted hijacking. Business & Jobs: Lebanon’s business community is also watching policy fallout as the US pushes Lebanon to disrupt Hezbollah-linked financial networks and banking reforms. Local Economy: A new Lebanese bistro, “Yola,” opens in Auckland, showing how Lebanese food branding keeps expanding abroad. Education & Skills: Lebanon’s welding lab opening highlights career-tech investment aimed at credentials and workforce readiness.

Lebanon Economic Strain: UNICEF says 4 in 5 Lebanese households can’t afford basic needs as the Israel-Hezbollah conflict deepens hunger, disrupts education, and limits healthcare access, with 22% reporting children going to bed hungry and 100,000 children at risk of losing classrooms. US-Lebanon Diplomacy: Lebanon’s top officials urged Washington to push Israel to implement the “framework agreement,” halt destruction in occupied southern villages, and support the Lebanese Army while reforms continue. Iran-US Oil & Trade Pressure: Iran says it received the US response to its proposal to end the Middle East war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with conditions including a ceasefire and unfreezing Iranian assets—while oil shipments from the Middle East are reported near pre-war levels. Money Laundering Crackdown: Germany carried out raids across Europe targeting an international money-laundering network allegedly linked to Hells Angels, with €48.6m in assets sought. Tech & Business: DoorDash launched an AI-enabled corporate ordering connector, while CoreWeave announced CoreWeave Forge for building and improving AI models and agents.

Lebanon-IMF & banking reform: Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam met World Bank chief in Washington to discuss reforms, recovery and reconstruction, while US Treasury urged Lebanon to take “decisive action” to disrupt Iranian and Hezbollah financial networks and advance banking reforms. Regional trade & investment: A Lebanon-Syria economic rapprochement is opening new trade and investment opportunities, adding momentum for cross-border business ties. Remittances for growth: Jordanian experts urged the country to channel rising remittances into investment and productive projects via public-private partnerships, not just consumer spending. Awards & business climate: The Stevie Awards’ Middle East & North Africa edition opened for entries (no entry fees), inviting companies and organizations across Lebanon and the region to submit workplace innovation nominations. Local business risk: Lebanon’s City warned of scam emails asking for wire transfers for city fees, urging residents and contractors to verify requests directly. Human rights & corporate pressure: Palestine called on companies worldwide to review ties with firms listed in the UN database linked to illegal Israeli settlements, highlighting reputational and compliance pressure on businesses.

Lebanon-US Financial Pressure: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met PM Nawaf Salam and Finance Minister Yassine Jaber in Washington, urging Beirut to take “decisive action” to disrupt Iranian and Hezbollah financial networks while pushing banking-sector reforms to restore confidence. Diplomatic Push: Salam also met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who stressed full implementation of the Lebanon-Israel-U.S. trilateral framework as the route to lasting peace. IMF/Recovery Agenda: Salam met World Bank chief Ajay Banga and IFC leadership to discuss reform, recovery and reconstruction, with focus on energy, water, infrastructure, digital transformation and social safety nets. Regional Shock to Lebanon’s Economy: Reporting on the Strait of Hormuz crisis highlights how Iran’s threats and shipping disruptions keep global oil and gas costs volatile—an issue that feeds directly into Lebanon’s import bill and inflation pressures. Sanctions & Banking Risk: A U.S. Senate Democratic report alleges Tether’s USDT was used in Iran-linked shadow banking, adding to the broader compliance pressure facing Lebanon’s financial sector.

US-Iran Mediation: Qatari mediators are set to hold separate talks with Iran’s Abbas Araqchi in New York and with the US side Monday or Tuesday, aiming to amend Iran’s seven-day proposal to end the seven-month war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump Sanctions Row: Trump denied a report that Washington offered Iran sanctions relief and access to frozen funds, saying he “offered them NOTHING,” even as diplomacy continues through mediators. Lebanon-US Finance Push: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam and Finance Minister Yassine Jaber, urging steps to disrupt Iranian and Hezbollah financial networks and to advance banking reforms to restore confidence. Market Mood: US stocks fell as yields rose on choppy US-Iran headlines, while crude jumped amid renewed Hormuz talk uncertainty. Security Incident in Lebanon: Lebanon Police investigated a bomb-threat hoax at a Walmart, found no bomb or victims, and cleared the store after an expanded police presence. Crypto Sanctions Evasion: A US Senate report says most sanctioned Iranian crypto wallets used Tether’s USDT, spotlighting stablecoins in the sanctions-evasion debate.

IMF Talks for Lebanon: Finance Minister Yassine Jaber says Lebanon is pushing for a new staff-level agreement with the IMF, but a full program still hinges on passing a “financial gap” law to account for losses from the 2019 crisis. Strait of Hormuz Shockwaves: Mediators say indirect US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are still alive, but Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal is already hitting markets, with surging oil prices dragging US futures lower. Lebanon’s Regional Exposure to Shipping Risk: Analysts warn that the Houthis’ expansion and threats to Saudi infrastructure could further disrupt Red Sea and Gulf trade routes—raising costs and uncertainty for Lebanon’s economy. Iraq-Syria Energy Corridor: A once-quiet Iraq-Syria border is turning into an oil-and-gas trade corridor as Iraq ships oil by truck to Syria and Syria sends gasoline back, partly because Hormuz access remains constrained. Legal Pressure in the Region: Israel says it has ordered preparations for a possible legal case against Turkey’s Erdoğan, while Iran’s treasury and foreign ministry messaging continues to frame the standoff as a fight over diplomacy versus war. Dubai Logistics Update: Dubai’s RTA will impose new truck movement restrictions from Oct. 1, with time-based limits on major roads aimed at easing congestion. Business & Markets Elsewhere: Selmore Pharma is seeking an IPO on Pakistan’s PSX, targeting up to Rs. 3.06bn, while the US and China released reciprocal $30bn product lists for tariff cuts after Trump-Xi talks.

Fuel & cost-of-living pressure: Rising fuel prices are squeezing Lebanese households as winter nears, with diesel and gasoline costs climbing and transport, heating and food prices taking the hit. Humanitarian readiness: Kuwait Red Crescent Society is boosting emergency preparedness and expanding partnerships, with a regional conference in Beirut focused on faster disaster response and capacity building. Hezbollah political line: Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem marked two years since Hassan Nasrallah’s killing, reiterating that resistance will continue until Israeli forces leave, while calling for Lebanon to freeze direct negotiations and shift to indirect talks. Regional shipping & energy routes: Syria has started road transit of gasoline to Iraq via the Banias oil terminal, aiming to keep fuel flows moving amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. Legal escalation talk: Israel’s Netanyahu has ordered preparations for a legal case against Turkey’s Erdogan after Ankara sought an Interpol red notice for Netanyahu. UN diplomacy spotlight: The UN’s secretary-general race is intensifying during UNGA high-level week, with Security Council straw polling showing Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan leading in anonymous votes.

Lebanon’s banking and state capacity: Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi urged sustained dialogue and banking reform, saying depositors’ rights must be restored and Lebanon needs stronger state institutions to regain public confidence. Lebanon security and reconstruction pressure: Israel’s overnight strikes hit multiple southern Lebanon towns (including Nabatieh, Tyre outskirts, Marjayoun and Bint Jbeil), while the June US-mediated framework agreement still faces implementation obstacles, keeping reconstruction and economic recovery in limbo. Regional trade chokepoint risk: US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, citing Iran’s weak position and saying Washington has “total control,” while Iran insists reopening depends on sanctions relief and a wider ceasefire that includes Lebanon. West Bank escalation with spillover concerns: Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich renewed calls for a Gaza-style war in the West Bank and for dismantling the Palestinian Authority, drawing sharp condemnation from Palestinian officials and raising fears of further regional instability. Local political friction: Lebanon’s FPM hit Hezbollah official Nawaf al-Moussawi after new anti-Bassil remarks, underscoring how regional tensions keep spilling into domestic politics. Business/industry angle: Al Zorah Development Company (Ajman government and Solidere) unveiled major mixed-use waterfront plans in Ajman, signaling continued regional investment momentum.

Hamas-linked security case: A former bodyguard of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was reportedly granted UK asylum and citizenship before allegedly plotting attacks on Jewish targets in Europe, raising fresh questions about screening and security cooperation. Gulf trade pressure: US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying Tehran is seeking a deal because it’s “losing so badly,” while the proposal tied reopening to sanctions relief and a ceasefire that includes Lebanon. UN humanitarian push: The EU announced over €710m in humanitarian aid, with major allocations for sub-Saharan Africa and emergency support including €103m for Palestine and Lebanon. Lebanon property curbs in occupied towns: A proposed law would bar selling land and property shares in Israeli-occupied southern Lebanon towns until occupation ends, with a special committee overseeing any exceptions. Smuggling and illegal crossings: Lebanese authorities intercepted groups trying to enter from Syria, with smugglers charging $150–$300 per person, showing how economic strain keeps illegal routes active. Regional labor pressure: Cyprus faced ongoing debate over third-country workers, with unions warning temporary agencies can fuel abuse while shortages push governments toward new bilateral labor arrangements.

UN & Accountability: Turkish President Erdoğan said ICC-listed Israeli officials should face courtrooms, not the UN podium, after Netanyahu’s UNGA speech sparked walkouts. Humanitarian Funding: PLO official Ahmad Abu Houli urged donors to turn UNRWA pledges into real financial and political commitments, citing new France (€15m) and Germany (€20m) support including aid for Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. Lebanon Security Pressure: Israel’s Smotrich urged Netanyahu to resume bombing Beirut over Hezbollah drone attacks, while Netanyahu reportedly favored defensive steps. Iran-US Talks & Energy Risk: Iran says it has sent a seven-day plan via Qatari mediators to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt regional fighting; Trump is reported to have rejected it and hinted bombing could resume after November midterms, while Pezeshkian told Al Jazeera Iran no longer trusts US negotiations. Regional Trade & Logistics: Dubai RTA and Dubai Police announced truck movement restrictions across most roads from Oct. 1, with an awareness campaign and route guidance for freight operators. Business/Finance: MultiBank Group won two awards at the 2026 Dubai Forex Expo, highlighting its institutional finance ecosystem and market innovation.

UN Diplomacy & Energy Security: Iran says it has sent the US a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and pause wider fighting, with talks on its nuclear file to follow; the proposal hinges on lifting the US naval blockade, easing sanctions on Iranian oil, and a ceasefire that includes Lebanon—while Trump publicly rejects the offer and expects bombing to resume after November midterms. Regional Security: France is drafting a UN Security Council resolution to reaffirm freedom of navigation through Hormuz, as the conflict continues to disrupt global oil and gas flows. Lebanon Tech & Skills: The UAE and Lebanon launched an initiative to train one million Lebanese in AI, aiming to build practical generative AI skills for work and daily life. Lebanon Legal/Property: A French-Lebanese entrepreneur filed a civil complaint alleging war crimes after Israeli forces uprooted about 600 olive trees in southern Lebanon, claiming the trees may have been transferred. Humanitarian Pressure: UNRWA warned of worsening conditions in Gaza and the West Bank, citing a 2026 cash-flow deficit and major gaps in shelter, water access, and winter aid.

Lebanon Energy & Cost of Living: Lebanon’s fuel prices have doubled since the US-Israel war on Iran began, hitting nearly $1.60 per litre and reigniting fears of social unrest as the trade union federation calls for an economic emergency and possible strike. Lebanon-Iran Diplomacy: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Lebanon does not want to be used as a stage for regional wars, urging a “new page” in state-to-state ties amid ongoing cross-border tensions. Regional Trade/Shipping: Iran says it has proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks if the US lifts its naval blockade, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and agrees to a ceasefire that would include Lebanon—while markets watch for any real shift. Security in Lebanon: Lebanese Army Intelligence arrested a suspected Islamic State member in northern Lebanon, accused of planning an attack on Pope Leo XIV during his 2025 visit. Business & Economy: Eli Lilly’s Lebanon, Indiana investment push is highlighted as a major jobs and manufacturing bet—while Lebanon’s own economic strain remains front and center.

UNGA Diplomacy: Lebanon’s PM Nawaf Salam told Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian that Lebanon “does not want to become an arena for regional wars,” after Hezbollah dragged the country deeper into the Middle East conflict. Regional Security: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif met Salam in New York, reaffirming support for Lebanon’s sovereignty and calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities and full withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied Lebanese territory. GCC-Iran Tensions: Kuwait’s Crown Prince delivered Kuwait’s UNGA speech condemning “despicable Iranian aggression,” citing attacks on civilian infrastructure including Kuwait International Airport and power/water stations. Houthis & Oil Routes: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan plan an urgent high-level meeting under a joint defence pact as Houthi strikes hit Saudi targets and disrupt Red Sea oil flows. UNGA Fallout: Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a defiant UN speech while dozens of delegations walked out, calling protesters “moral cowards” and holding up a pager linked to a 2024 Lebanon operation. Lebanon Economy & Trade: EU-backed support for Lebanon’s stability and reforms is in focus alongside ongoing regional pressures.

EU Support: The European Commission approved a €505m package for Lebanon’s stability, recovery and reforms across 2026-2027, targeting basic services, institutional reform and security enhancement, plus civil society support. Port & Trade: Beirut Port handled three mega mother vessels in one day, underscoring rising operational capacity and ongoing modernization efforts. Lebanon-Syria Ties: PM Nawaf Salam met Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa in New York to push a “new page” on cooperation and regional connectivity, including electricity and rail. Local Business & Governance: Lebanon’s City Hall moved to cool social media claims around the Ice Cream Factory, clarifying a $400,000 city-authorized loan for electrical/building upgrades and the final project cost. Regional Security Finance: A report argues Iran’s economic squeeze and the loss of key smuggling routes have weakened Hezbollah’s financial backbone. Tourism Momentum: Syria reported 3.52m visitors in H1 2026—more than double year-on-year—aiming to convert arrivals into investment and jobs. Dining Growth: Lebanon Opportunities highlights Naccache’s restaurant boom as security concerns shift demand toward safer, decentralized hubs.

EU Support for Lebanon: The European Commission approved a €505m package for Lebanon covering 2026-2027, targeting basic services for vulnerable groups, recovery and reforms, and security/border management, plus support for refugees’ durable solutions. Lebanon State Capacity: PM Nawaf Salam urged partners to fund relief, recovery and reconstruction in parallel—so aid strengthens Lebanese institutions instead of creating parallel systems. Lebanon-Syria Economic Ties: President Joseph Aoun met Syria’s economy chief to discuss a “new page” in relations, with emphasis on cooperation between business councils and SMEs. Beirut Road Safety: Lebanon’s airport road faces renewed security concerns after deadly rock-throwing incidents exposed gaps in surveillance and road protection. Regional Travel Risk: The U.S. issued a “reconsider travel” advisory for much of the Middle East amid escalating tensions, including disruptions tied to the wider conflict. West Bank Flashpoint Warnings: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington doesn’t want “additional flashpoints” in Judea and Samaria as violence and tensions rise. Banking/Finance: Kenya’s central bank approved the transfer of Access Bank Kenya assets and liabilities to National Bank of Kenya. Business Integrity Watch: In Lebanon, Missouri, a city-loan recipient tied to an old bank-fraud conviction is under scrutiny, highlighting how local financing can trigger reputational risk.