AGP Executive Report

Lebanon Politics: Lebanon’s Parliament renewed Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government confidence with 68 votes for, 12 against and two abstentions, while Hezbollah MPs walked out—keeping the weapons question and southern Lebanon’s security at the center of the debate. UNIFIL & Security Vacuum: Lebanon is pushing France, Jordan and the US to prevent a security vacuum in the south as UNIFIL’s mandate nears expiry, warning that no clear replacement authority has been agreed. Lebanon Economy: An IMF mission report highlights deepening economic strain in Lebanon, with conflict weighing on activity and growth prospects. Regional Energy Impact: Qatar says Iranian attacks and the Strait of Hormuz disruption cut about 17% of LNG export revenue, with gas infrastructure damage expected to take 2–3 years to fully repair. Global Macro: The IMF chief warns inflation remains stubborn and AI-related financing risks could still trigger shocks to the global economy. US-Mideast Tensions: The US urged Americans to reconsider travel across the Middle East as Houthis escalate attacks tied to the Red Sea and Saudi targets. Business & Trade: Standard Chartered plans to wind down retail and card operations in Bangladesh, signaling continued restructuring in emerging markets.

Lebanon-Economy/IMF: An IMF mission wrapped up talks with Lebanon on economic reforms, with new reporting warning of deepening strain and a sharp contraction in 2026 as conflict weighs on activity. Lebanon-Security/Army: France-led discussions in Paris are pushing a post-UN mission plan, with Lebanon and partners focusing on backing the Lebanese Armed Forces and the conditions needed for international aid. Middle East Risk/Travel: The US issued coordinated security alerts covering Lebanon and several regional countries, warning of the potential for rapid, unexpected escalation, with possible flight cancellations and airspace closures. Regional Energy/Shipping: US warnings followed a missile attack on Riyadh amid Saudi-Houthi fighting, raising concerns for oil exports and maritime traffic through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb. Local Business/Community: Lebanon-linked diaspora sports and youth events continued, including an Indian Embassy-hosted Viksit Bharat Run in Beirut with government participation and small municipal support. Civil Society/Clubs: Bahrain dissolved 45 inactive associations and clubs, including some expatriate community groups, after five years of inactivity.

Lebanon Economy: An IMF delegation wrapped up a visit to Lebanon after talks on financial imbalances, banking sector restructuring and reforms needed to unlock recovery support, with the Fund expected to keep monitoring progress. Regional Risk for Lebanon: The US warned that fighting tied to Iran-backed Houthis could “escalate rapidly,” urging Americans in the Middle East—including Lebanon—to stay vigilant as embassies flagged possible flight cancellations and airspace closures. Security Spillover: In the West Bank, Netanyahu vowed accountability after a shooting near Neve Tzuf and ordered troop reinforcements, closures and arrests, while also linking threats to Gaza and Lebanon. Energy/Trade Pressure: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh and reported attempted strikes on Red Sea infrastructure, underscoring how shipping and fuel routes can tighten quickly. Business & Trade Culture: Sharjah’s booksellers conference is drawing regional publishers and distributors to discuss distribution, retail and digital channels.

Lebanon Economy Watch: An IMF mission in Beirut warned that the Hezbollah-Israel conflict and wider regional security shocks are pushing Lebanon toward a sharper 2026 contraction, with inflation still in double digits, a widening current-account deficit, and major damage to infrastructure and housing. The IMF said authorities preserved some macro stability, but urged more work to align banking and deposit-recovery rules with international standards. Regional Security & Trade Risk: US officials issued fresh alerts across the Middle East, warning of possible flight cancellations and airspace closures as Iran sets seven conditions for talks via Qatar and tensions with Iran-backed Houthis keep rising. Saudi Arabia confirmed a Houthi attempt to hit Riyadh with a ballistic missile and reported threats to Red Sea infrastructure—raising the stakes for shipping and energy costs that can quickly spill into Lebanon’s economy. Lebanon Business & Diplomacy: Lebanon’s army and state institutions remain central in international discussions, with France and regional partners backing efforts tied to southern security and de-escalation. Publishing & Commerce: Beirut-linked industry voices highlighted how the Sharjah Booksellers Conference is connecting publishers, distributors and e-commerce players from 99 countries—an example of cross-border trade opportunities for Lebanon’s cultural and publishing sector.

Lebanon Economy: The IMF says the war is taking a heavy toll on Lebanon’s economy, with double-digit inflation, a wider current-account deficit driven by energy costs, major damage to housing and infrastructure, and worsening living standards for displaced people—calling for a credible medium-term fiscal plan to restore debt sustainability and fund reconstruction and social protection. Lebanon Security & Diplomacy: France, Lebanon and Jordan held talks in Paris to secure international support for the cash-strapped Lebanese army and discuss what comes after UNIFIL’s end, with leaders also coordinating on southern Lebanon security and a post-mandate international presence. Lebanon Healthcare Under Fire: Lebanon’s Health Ministry condemned the burning of Mays al-Jabal Governmental Hospital, saying it was occupied and turned into a barracks before being set ablaze, and warned the attack is part of a systematic assault on healthcare. Regional Energy Pressure: With Houthis tightening control around Bab el-Mandeb and attacks disrupting Red Sea shipping, Saudi Arabia issued air-raid alerts and maritime traffic thinned—raising fresh risks for oil and trade routes that matter to Lebanon’s import-dependent economy. UNGA Focus: Arab League chief Nabil Fahmy heads to New York for UNGA 81, expected to push positions on Gaza, humanitarian access, and Gulf security amid Iran-related tensions.

Lebanon–Israel Security: Lebanon’s Executive condemned an Israeli attack that set fire to the Meis al Yabal public hospital in southern Lebanon, saying it was carried out despite a ceasefire and accusing Israel of systematic destruction of healthcare. Cross-border Network: Lebanon says it uncovered a cross-border network involving a former Internal Security Forces member allegedly linked to drone training and sabotage preparations between Lebanon and Syria. IMF Talks: Prime Minister Najib Mikati Salam met an IMF delegation to discuss reforms and a path toward an agreement. UNIFIL & Diplomacy: Lebanon is pushing to keep a UN presence in the south as Beirut and Paris revisit the UNIFIL end-date, with discussions also focused on supporting and training the Lebanese army. Payments & Remittances: Thunes expanded its cross-border payout network into six Middle East markets including Lebanon, adding bank, wallet and cash pickup routes. Regional War Costs: A report says the Iran conflict has cost US taxpayers $43.6bn, while other analysis warns diplomacy is harder as both sides keep hard demands. Gaza Humanitarian Pressure: Gaza’s Health Ministry warned hospitals are “slowly dying” as fuel and supplies are restricted, and a Gaza refugee committee warned UNRWA cuts could undermine essential services.

Lebanon-Army Funding Push: French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Joseph Aoun and Jordan’s King Abdullah II in Paris, saying international help for the Lebanese Armed Forces hinges on a credible deployment plan, with France aiming to back sovereignty and stability after the UN mission’s end. Southern Lebanon Costs: A new report highlights how the war is wrecking southern farmers’ livelihoods, with destroyed land and blocked access making rebuilding agriculture harder than ever. Maritime Trade & CMA CGM: Franco-Lebanese CMA CGM CEO Rodolphe Saadé spoke candidly about leading through crises, decarbonization and AI, and discussed the company’s investments in Lebanon. Regional Security & Yemen: US officials met Houthi representatives in Muscat after the group seized territory near Bab al-Mandeb, with assurances they won’t target US shipping—though analysts warn disruption risks remain. Aviation Safety: Cyprus says fixing flight safety issues in the Nicosia FIR ultimately depends on resolving the Cyprus problem so air-traffic control can connect with Turkey. Diplomatic Appointments: Nepal’s cabinet recommended 13 ambassadors, including to India, China, the US and the UK, with bios now heading to parliamentary review.

Lebanon-Army Backing: France’s Macron met Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun in Paris with Jordan’s King Abdullah II to push international support for the Lebanese Armed Forces and plan a post-UNIFIL replacement force, with talks also focused on ending Israeli attacks and strengthening state authority across Lebanon. Regional Security Talks: The “Aqaba Process” brought in senior military officials from Lebanon, France, Jordan, the UK and Italy, plus US and Saudi officials, aiming for a “clear, credible and realistic” LAF deployment framework tied to aid for equipment and training. US Politics & Arms: A senior US House Democrat put a hold on a proposed $2.8bn Israel bomb package (including 40,000 one-ton-class munitions), citing insufficient assurances on civilian protections. Energy & Shipping Risk: Turkey condemned Houthi actions and warned that Red Sea/Bab al-Mandab threats are harming international maritime trade and regional stability. Local Governance (Lebanon, Ohio): A petition campaign is gathering signatures ahead of a city council vote on whether to keep Flock Safety automated license plate reader cameras paused.

Lebanon–France–Jordan Security Talks: President Joseph Aoun met Macron in Paris to brief on southern Lebanon and the post-UNIFIL phase, with both sides pushing UN Security Council plans to avoid a security vacuum and discussing economic and energy cooperation, including resuming oil and gas exploration. Aqaba Process & Army Support: Aoun, Macron and Jordan’s King Abdullah also held a trilateral meeting ahead of a conference to back the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces, while chiefs of defence from several countries met in Paris to assess needs as UNIFIL’s mandate ends. State Authority vs Hezbollah Politics: Lebanon’s Parliament renewed confidence in PM Nawaf Salam’s government, with Hezbollah lawmakers withdrawing from the vote “to save face,” underscoring ongoing political friction over war and sovereignty. Lebanon Displacement Pressure: Women Journalists Without Chains warned that 334,353 people remain displaced inside Lebanon, citing damaged housing, hazards, and collapsing services that are keeping returns unsafe. Regional Drug Busts: Tripoli seized about 100,000 Gaddafi-shaped ecstasy tablets, while Libya’s east reported a captagon shipment linked to the Assad regime. Food Costs: Lebanon raised the price of a white bread bundle to 80,000 LBP, adding to household strain.

Electricity Link: Cyprus and Lebanon have started official talks on an undersea cable that would let Cyprus export surplus renewable power to Lebanon, though experts warn storage is still essential to avoid unstable supply. Energy & Trade Risk: US VP JD Vance warned that any US pullback from the Middle East could trigger a worldwide energy crisis as Iran targets commercial shipping, keeping oil and shipping costs under pressure. Arms & Politics: A top US House Democrat, Gregory Meeks, is blocking a $2.8bn Israel bomb sale over concerns about use in densely populated Gaza and Lebanon, adding uncertainty to a major military financing pipeline. Lebanon Port & Antiquities: Lebanon returned 37 seized Egyptian artefacts from the Beirut port case, restoring them to Egypt after provenance checks. Sovereignty Talks: Lebanon’s PM Nawaf Salam said strengthening state authority across the country improves Lebanon’s negotiating leverage with Israel, while Egypt reiterated full Israeli withdrawal and UN 1701 implementation.

Telenor Probe: Norway raids Telenor’s Fornebu offices and charges the telecom over alleged Sanctions Act breaches and complicity in Myanmar rights abuses, even after Telenor exited Myanmar in 2022 by selling to Lebanon-based M1 Group. Red Sea Shock for Saudi: Reuters reports Houthi capture of ground overlooking Bab el-Mandeb as Saudi Arabia’s biggest Yemen setback in years, raising fears of trade disruption and exposing intelligence and command gaps. Lebanon Regional Moves: Egypt’s FM spoke by phone with Lebanon’s PM Nawaf Salam on de-escalation and Israel’s withdrawal, while Lebanon’s government repackaged Tripoli projects to turn the port, Tripoli Special Economic Zone and rail links into a logistics hub. Aviation & Connectivity: ATM 2026 highlights that post-conflict travel recovery hinges on stronger aviation infrastructure and better data-led decision-making, with Lebanon’s tourism minister among speakers. Lebanon Humanitarian Aid: Grand Ayatollah Shirazi’s office distributed school bags and stationery to students ahead of the new academic year amid Lebanon’s education squeeze. Arms Deal Fallout: Multiple reports say the US approved a $2.8bn package to Israel for 40,000 heavy 2,000-pound bombs, funded by US taxpayers, reigniting debate over civilian harm in Gaza and Lebanon.

Lebanon Education Crunch: A Lebanese mother says private-school tuition now eats most of household income, with fees rising 15–30% and private schools enrolling about 72% of students—turning schooling into a survival trade-off. Regional Trade & Transport: Lebanon and Syria are moving to reconnect Tripoli Port to the Syrian rail network, commissioning a consultancy to update the Tripoli–Al-Aboudieh line and aiming to expand logistics links toward Iraq, Jordan, the Gulf and Türkiye. Humanitarian Pressure: The Netherlands is adding €7m for reception facilities and protection in Lebanon, citing the fragile situation for both displaced Lebanese and Syrian refugees, with Red Cross and Dutch partners playing key roles. Security & Finance: Kuwait’s State Security Appeals Court sentenced three Kuwaitis and one Lebanese to 10 years for joining and financing Hezbollah, while another case delivered 7 years for similar charges via a charitable committee. Energy & Markets: An ISW/CTP update says the Houthis may expand strikes into Saudi Arabia to erode support for Yemen operations, amid shifting oil-export routes and wider regional pressure. Sanctions Watch: FinCEN issued an alert to banks on Iran-linked aviation procurement networks, warning sanctions-evasion risks running through the U.S. financial system.

Port Expansion: CMA CGM says it will expand and modernize the Port of Beirut container terminal, nearly doubling its footprint to 80 hectares and lifting capacity from 1.2m to 2.8m TEUs, with an automated gate, new feeder quay, customs inspection upgrades and more cargo equipment. Reconstruction Funding: Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam told Parliament that rebuilding after Israel’s wars is beyond state capacity and needs major Arab and international funding, linking support to trust and reforms; he cited World Bank estimates putting the 2023-2024 war cost near $14bn and warned total damage could top $27bn. Diplomacy & State Authority: Salam also stressed that direct talks with Israel are not a surrender of rights but a state-led diplomatic path, while warning that Lebanon’s framework obligations raise questions. Digital Cooperation: Lebanon signed the Digital Cooperation Organisation (DCO) Charter in Riyadh, moving toward full membership and expanding digital ties with Cyprus and other members. Fuel Scandal: A new report links Lebanon’s sanctioned oil scandal to a Russian-linked shadow maritime network, naming companies and vessels tied to alleged overpriced fuel imports. Energy Security Shock: Saudi Arabia’s East–West crude pipeline may stay offline for weeks after drone attacks, raising fresh supply concerns as regional shipping risks persist. Food Sector Strain: A look at Lebanese food producers shows how currency collapse, conflict and higher costs are reshaping who can keep producing and selling locally.

Lebanon State Role: Hezbollah and Amal urged Lebanon’s state to fully assume its responsibilities, calling for dialogue over exclusion, plus civil peace, faster reconstruction, and support for residents’ return. Lebanon Politics: An opinion piece warns Parliament not to become a tool to target PM Nawaf Salam, amid claims that former PM Najib Mikati is being promoted as a replacement. Regional Energy Shock: Saudi Arabia shut its East-West oil pipeline after a drone attack blamed on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq; repairs may take weeks, raising fears of tighter supplies as Red Sea routes face further pressure. Shipping Outlook: The US expects oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to rise in coming weeks, even as regional conflict keeps volatility high. UN & AI Governance: The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on AI next week, with France pushing multilateral oversight as risks to global security and children are debated. Lebanon-Linked Diplomacy: Pakistan and Lebanon signed an MoU to transfer sentenced persons to serve remaining terms at home. Israel-Palestine Rights Claim: B’Tselem released a report alleging a “comprehensive mechanism” aimed at eliminating Palestinians in the West Bank, citing displacement, detention and violence.

Digital Economy & Policy: Lebanon signed the Digital Cooperation Organization (DCO) charter and launched the Lebanon Digital Prosperity Plan, aiming to turn digital priorities into measurable projects across policy, infrastructure, AI, skills, entrepreneurship, and investment. Development Finance: The IFC named Thomas Jacobs as Division Director for the Levant, Iraq and Yemen, with priorities including private-sector participation, infrastructure gaps, water security, MSME finance, digitalisation, and support for women and youth—covering Lebanon among other markets. Payments & Inclusion: Thunes expanded cross-border payouts across six Middle East markets, adding Lebanon to its network for faster, local-currency payouts to bank accounts, wallets, and cash pickup points. Regional Trade & Energy Pressure: Gulf states postponed key Hormuz talks with Iran as Yemen’s Houthis tighten control around Bab el-Mandeb, while Saudi oil infrastructure faces renewed strain—pushing oil prices higher and raising shipping and supply risks. BRICS & Global Order: Coverage highlights the New Delhi Declaration and BRICS’ shift toward resilience and cooperation, with Iran pressing for trade in national currencies and a stronger role for BRICS in upholding non-use of force. Lebanon Governance & Costs: A debate continues over Lebanon’s solid waste management law and the National Solid Waste Management Authority, with the sector’s political and profit incentives still a sticking point.

BRICS Dollar Push: The 18th BRICS summit in New Delhi adopted the 45-page New Delhi Declaration, backing trade and investment settled in national currencies and a payments setup meant to route cross-border deals without relying on the dollar-linked system. Lebanon UN File: Lebanon asked the UN Security Council to extend UNIFIL’s mandate beyond Dec. 31, citing ongoing instability as Israel presses for the mission to end. Southern Lebanon Security Zone: After demolishing Hezbollah tunnels on Ali Taher Ridge, Israel carried out a localized redeployment toward Beaufort Castle and reiterated it will keep a “security zone” along the “yellow line.” Cost of Living Pressure: A Lebanon-focused report says the same salary buys less as food prices jump—linked to fuel rising more than 80%—squeezing household budgets. Regional Trade Shock: Iran’s Pezeshkian told BRICS to expand national-currency trade and warned that sanctions and attacks on infrastructure make economic resilience “unsustainable,” with spillovers beyond borders. Aviation Deal: Qatar Airways announced limited-time flight discounts from Doha to Beirut and other routes, with specific blackout dates. Border Drugs: Syria reported seizures of hashish and Captagon pills along the Syrian-Lebanese border, underscoring continued cross-border trafficking risks.